Headline inflation will drop sharply to 6.5% in November 2025, from 8.0% recorded in October 2025.
According to IC Research, this is due to a strong, favourable base effect and recent cedi appreciation.
“A strong, favourable base effect and recent cedi appreciation will likely drag inflation towards the BoG’s [Bank of Ghana] lower target. We expect headline inflation to drop sharply to 6.5% in November 2025 (- 150 basis points month-on-month), reflecting a favourable base effect and the cedi’s sharp appreciation, which has reversed recent fuel price pressures.”
In its analysis of the October 2025 inflation, the leading market research firm said it expects a cut in the policy rate of the Bank of Ghana.
It noted that while the month-on-month inflation rate remained on a generally downward trend since December 2024, it noted renewed fluctuation around the trend, oscillating between deflation and inflation in the second half of 2025. “We believe the month-on-month deflation in June [2025] and October [2025] reflects the impact of sharp cedi appreciation, while the August [2025] deflation reflects the onset of crop harvest”.
The trend of disinflation in the Ghanaian economy continued for the tenth consecutive month as annual headline inflation landed softly on the bullseye at 8.0% year-on-year in October 2025. This represented the lowest annual inflation print since June 2021 (7.8%).
Food inflation returned to single digits for the first time since July 2021, declining by 150 basis points to 9.5% year-on-year on the back of disinflation for fish & other seafoods as well as live animals, and ready-made food.
Non-food inflation slid into deeper single digits with a 130 basis points decline to 6.9% year-on-year, suppressed by a broad-based disinflation within the non-food inflation basket.
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