The board approval by the International Monetary Fund for the fifth review of Ghana’s bailout programme will likely be secured in December 2025, IC Research has predicted.
This is coming after the Government of Ghana and the IMF mission reached a staff-level agreement on the fifth review in October 2023, as the authorities met all six quantitative performance criteria and four indicative targets for the period to end June 2025.
The approval would trigger a disbursement of US$385 million by the Fund which strengthen the forex reserves ahead of the January 2026 Eurobond debt service, estimated at US$689.0 million.
IC research explained that the IMF struck a more bullish tone in the fifth review, compared to the steadily softer tone deployed over the first four reviews. “We took a closer view of the language adopted by the Fund at the end of the fifth review and inferred a more positive and tangibly confident assessment of the latest performance and near-term economic prospects. The Fund described the authorities’ actions to support financial sector stability as “strong” while indicating that the authorities made “notable strides” in addressing longstanding challenges in the energy sector”.
Overall, the IMF concluded that macroeconomic stabilisation is taking root with inflation forecast to remain within the Bank of Ghana’s medium-term target range (8.0% ±2.0%), allowing for gradual monetary policy normalisation.
“In our view, this indicates the fund’s confidence in the durability of Ghana’s disinflation trend and support for the Central Bank’s cautious pivot towards policy rate cuts”, the leading market research firm averred.
Outlook
On the outlook, the IMF also expressed its expectation for the “positive momentum to continue into 2026”.
“This tone contrasts markedly with the steadily diminished bullishness expressed during the first four reviews when the Fund’s assessment of Ghana’s performance softened from “strong” in the first review to “generally strong” in the second review, and “generally satisfactory” in the third review. Unsurprisingly, the fourth review was a culmination of the weakening programme performance as the Fund described it as a “marked deterioration” with most indicators deviating from targets”, it mentioned.
It concluded that the more upbeat expressions adopted by the IMF mission at the end of the fifth review provides significant optimism to expect a relatively smooth and favourable consideration by the Executive Board in December 2025 for the disbursement of US$385.0 million for budget operation and balance of payments support.
This should support an ever-improving net international reserves which stood at US$8.4 billion in August 2025 (3.6 months of import cover), above the programme target of 3.0 months by 2026.
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