The upcoming 2026 Budget will stay within the 1.5% primary surplus of Gross Domestic Product stipulated in the Fiscal Responsibility Act.
According to IC Research, a leading financial markets research firm, the government have exhibited sufficient policy credibility to stay within the fiscal limits in 2026.
The primary balance on commitment basis stood at a surplus (1.1% of Gross Domestic Product) in eight months of 2025, and the International Monetary Fund expressed optimism for the authorities to achieve the target surplus of 1.5% by end-2025.
According to IC Research, this will ensure effective compliance with the Fiscal Responsibility Act (FRA) for the first time since its introduction in 2018 and confirm Ghana’s return to the path of fiscal sustainability.
Despite the market’s cautious view of the post-IMF fiscal commitment in 2026, the Fund expects Ghana’s 2026 budget to remain compliant with the FRA with a target primary surplus of 1.5% (the minimum benchmark in the FRA) for the second successive year.
“We think the authorities [government] have exhibited sufficient policy credibility to stay within the fiscal limits in 2026”, it said.
“However, we flag the continued revenue underperformance amid expectation of a ramp-up in spending pressure as a major test of the authorities’ resolve to sustain fiscal credibility beyond the IMF programme”, it alluded.
The 2026 Budget is expected to be presented on November 13, 2025, by the Finance Mnister, Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson.
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