The profitability of Ghanaian banks’ is set to weaken considerably due to the impact of materially lower interest rates on net interest margins (NIMs), Fitch Ratings has stated.
However, the profitability will remain high by regional standards and continue to be a strength of the banks’ standalone credit profiles.
According to the UK-based firm, inflationary pressures have decreased significantly due to the Bank of Ghana’s (BoG) tight monetary policy stance, Ghanaian cedi appreciation, fiscal consolidation and an improvement in food supplies.
Headline inflation declined to 9.4% in September, the lowest level in four years, from 11.5% in August. According to Fitch Ratings, this encouraged the BoG to cut the monetary policy rate (MPR) by 350 basis points to 21.5% on 17 September, 2025 following a 300bp cut in July.
It expects inflation to moderate further in the near term, averaging 8% in 2026 and prompting further MPR cuts.
Meanwhile, money market yields have declined significantly over the past year, with 91‑day treasury bill yields down to 10.2% in September 2025 from 25.1% in September 2024. This is due to excess liquidity and lower government cash financing needs.
Fitch said T-bill yields may increase in the near term, but yields on open-market operation instruments issued by the BoG will decline.
These instruments account for a substantial proportion of banking sector securities holdings and are issued closer to the MPR.
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