A new report by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) warns that the world is on track to go beyond the 1.5°C global warming limit — at least temporarily — because of weak climate action and lack of ambition from countries.
The Emissions Gap Report 2025: Off Target says that global temperatures will rise between 2.3°C and 2.5°C this century if countries fully implement their current climate pledges under the Paris Agreement. This is only a small improvement from last year’s forecast of 2.6°C to 2.8°C.
If nations continue with only their current policies, global temperatures could reach up to 2.8°C, compared to 3.1°C last year.
UNEP says this small progress is not enough to stop the world from entering dangerous territory. The report warns that the world is “heading for a serious escalation of climate risks and damages.”
“Scientists tell us that a temporary overshoot above 1.5 degrees is now inevitable – starting, at the latest, in the early 2030s. And the path to a livable future gets steeper by the day,” said UN Secretary-General António Guterres.
He said this is no reason to surrender. It’s a reason to step up and speed up. “1.5 degrees by the end of the century remains our North Star. And the science is clear: this goal is still within reach. But only if we meaningfully increase our ambition.”
The report notes that only 60 Parties to the Paris Agreement — representing about 63% of global emissions — have submitted or announced new 2035 climate targets as of September 2025. Many countries are also not on track to meet their existing 2030 targets.
According to the study, global emissions rose 2.3% in 2024, reaching 57.7 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent. To stay on track for the 1.5°C target, emissions would need to fall 40% by 2030, a target that is now almost impossible to reach.
“Nations have had three attempts to deliver promises made under the Paris Agreement, and each time they have landed off target,” said Inger Andersen, Executive Director of UNEP.
She added that, while national climate plans have delivered some progress, it is nowhere near fast enough, which is why the world still needs unprecedented emissions cuts in an increasingly tight window, with an increasingly challenging geopolitical backdrop.
“But it is still possible – just. Proven solutions already exist. From the rapid growth in cheap renewable energy to tackling methane emissions, we know what needs to be done. Now is the time for countries to go all in and invest in their future with ambitious climate action – action that delivers faster economic growth, better human health, more jobs, energy security and resilience.”
UNEP’s analysis shows that the world’s biggest emitters — the G20 countries — play a critical role in closing the gap. These countries account for 77% of global emissions, but most are not on track to meet their 2030 goals. G20 emissions even rose by 0.7% in 2024, the report says.
The report also shows that while low-carbon technologies such as solar and wind energy are expanding fast and becoming cheaper, global progress depends on stronger political commitment and financial support for developing countries.
To limit global warming, the report calls for rapid and deep emission cuts starting in 2025. It warns that every delay makes the challenge harder — and every fraction of a degree of additional warming brings more floods, heatwaves, and loss of lives and livelihoods, especially for the poorest nations.
The UNEP report concludes that only urgent global cooperation and bold national action can still make it possible to bring temperatures back to 1.5°C by the end of the century.
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