BoG to cut policy rate further to 19%

The Bank of Ghana will cut its policy rate by between 250 basis points and 300 basis points in its next meeting in November 2025.

According to a leading financial research firm, IC Research, this is on the back of a further drop in inflation in October 2025.

Ghana’s annual headline inflation returned to the Bank of Ghana’s medium-term target band for the first time since August 2021. The headline Consumer Price Inflation declined sharply by 210 basis points to 9.4% year-on-year in September 2025, falling faster than IC Research’s forecast decline of 190 basis points.

The disinflation was largely broad-based as goods inflation, which accounts for 72.5% of the overall CPI basket, eased by 270 basis points to 11.2% year-on-year. The services inflation also moderated by 60 basis points to 4.8% year-on-year.

“In our view, this reflects recent foreign exchange shift to the upside and the resultant upticks in domestic energy prices. We view the first single-digit headline inflation in September 2025 as a confirmation that the Ghanaian economy has progressed decisively towards price stability after over four years of double-digit price increases”, IC Research explained.

“While upside risk to the near- and medium-term path looms, we believe the authorities would be minded by the need to lock in the gains with continued policy credibility. The durable moderation in inflation risk has further strengthened the case for another cut in the nominal policy rate with downside scope for domestic bond yields in 4Q2025 [4^th quarter of 2025]”, it added.

The Bank of Ghana cut its policy rate to 21.5% from 25% in September 2025, as a result of easing inflation.

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